This past weekend, the Orillia area experienced unseasonably warm weather with temperatures that exceded 21 degrees and shattered records that date back to 1945.
Local weather watcher David Brain says it's extremely unusual to see temperatures this high in November.
At this time last year, temperatures dipped down around -10 degrees and ski resorts were creating snow and preparing their hills for a Nov. 7 opening day - the earliest in history for many local resorts. That's not going to be duplicated this year.
“It’s a very unusual situation where we have a Bermuda high out in the southeast Atlantic. This is more like what we would see in the summer time; we would see more warm air coming up during a July or August air mass,” Brain explained.
“Everything is circulating from the southeast, so it's stopping all the cold air from out west right now where in Edmonton and Calgary they have gotten 25 to 30 centimetres of snow in the last few days," explained the avid weather watcher.
While Brain does acknowledge the recent temperatures are rare, he isn’t ready to say climate change is the reason for the bizarre weather. He contends it might just be part of a cyclical pattern.
“I think these things do happen and we just don’t remember them from years ago. Back in 1938, this happened. In 1945, it happened ... this could be a cycle we are going through. To say it’s climate change, I don’t know about that,” Brain said.
While many Orillia residents have been enjoying the warm weather, Brain says folks should expect the warm spell to transition into more seasonal weather by mid-week.
“What happens is we see a drop in the west where you see the cold air and then it kind of balances out with a ridge in the east and we see it get warmer, but eventually, that’s going to break down, and eventually, we are going to get back into the colder air,” Brain said.
“It looks like a cold front is coming through Tuesday night into Wednesday which is when we are going to struggle through highs of 8 to 10 degrees," predicted Brain. "And then on Friday, we are looking at wet flurries which could continue into the weekend. So we are going to see more seasonal weather in the near future.”
Looking ahead to the winter months, Brain says the unusual mild weather Orillia is currently experiencing could be a sign of things to come.
“I think this winter ... we are going to see roller coaster weather where it’s going to be very mild and then we will get lots of snow, and then all of the sudden, mild again," he forecast.
“The models I have been looking at are showing that winter will have a more progressive pattern where we will see more waviness in the jet stream. Right now the jet stream is staying to the west of us and going up into the north, up through Manitoba, so it’s keeping us warm on the eastern half, but eventually we are going to start seeing more of a buckle and more of a roller coaster," he said.
Enjoy the mild weather while you can, he says. Orillia residents can expect a blast of cold arctic air with some wet flurries and some possible lake effect snow for this upcoming weekend, which will be followed by milder 6-8 degree temperatures.
Brain says his models show that we could be back into the -10 to -15 temperature range with heavy doses of snow squalls by the third weekend of November.
